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Is it coming home?

I’ve been doing some work recently on our LeadScorer tool, which takes a series of prospect attributes and behaviours, and predicts their relative likelihood to purchase. This can then be deployed to prioritise customer outreach and get a feel for overall pipeline value.

 

However, as cases of Euros fever in the Coppett Hill office increased in severity, the lightbulb flickered to repurpose this tool to answer the question on everyone’s lips.

 

Is it coming home?

 

And just like that, Project World In Motion was born.

 

How have we done it?

 

Purists would say that the beautiful game is named so for the fact that the outcome of a game is determined by so much more than historical performance, player form, home advantage etc. We, at Coppett Hill, have chosen to entirely disregard this point of view for the sake of enjoying some of our niche brand of nerdy fun. 

 

Essentially, we took our LeadScorer tool, repurposed it to use the result of every international football match since 2016 and accompanying team attributes as training data, then generated an expected result for each possible fixture, and consequent tournament progression.

 

Early iterations of our data structure/model produced some interesting results. In one early example, Scotland beat Germany 7-0 in the opening fixture, providing a textbook example of why you should always common sense check your outputs - sorry Scotland fans.

 

With some iteration, we arrived at a set of (depending on your point of view) less ridiculous results, and the golden question was answered. I’ll be updating the model following the conclusion of the group stage - stay tuned. In the spirit of this being a bit of fun, I’ve taken the liberty of furnishing this article with a series of AI generated images (the description in italics is also AI generated!). 

 

Before we get started, this does not constitute any form of gambling advice. Obviously. Now, let’s get into it.

 

The group stage


In true England fashion, the tournament begins with nervy 2-1 win against a tough Serbia side. Bringing back memories of the Euro 2020/21 semi-final, England second group game with Denmark ends at 1-1 after 90 minutes. Finally, England manage to squeeze past Slovenia 2-1 to secure top spot in group C on 7 points. The defence is slightly more porous than we might have hoped, but the ability to grind out results when delivering underwhelming performances is giving rise to a mood of cautious optimism around the country.


Scotland scrape through to the round of 16 by the skin of their teeth with a total of 2 points at the group stage, losing to Germany before securing hard-fought draws in their remaining 2 fixtures.



Here is an image capturing the atmosphere of cautious optimism around England ahead of Euro 2024. Fans are gathered in iconic locations, dressed in England kits, waving flags, and showing support for the national team, reflecting hope and anticipation. Enjoy this depiction of the hopeful mood!


The round of 16


England produce an assured performance against Turkey to come to a comfortable 2-1 win at the round of 16. Elsewhere, it is the end of the road for Scotland, who fall short against Belgium.



Here is the split scene depicting England's assured performance to win against Turkey and Scotland falling short against Belgium. The image captures the contrasting emotions and outcomes of both matches. Enjoy the visual representation of these moments!


The quarter finals


The quarter finals arrive – the backdrop for so much heartbreak over the years for England fans. Facing none other than holders Italy, England produce a 2-0 win to book their place in the semi-finals, and even the most pessimistic of fans begin to question whether this could finally be our year. Elsewhere, tournament favourites France are eliminated by Belgium.



Here is an image of an extremely pessimistic England football fan, with a deeply sceptical expression, slumped posture, and arms crossed. The atmosphere is filled with doubt and resignation, capturing the hesitant and almost reluctant optimism.


The semi finals


Faced with the prospect of a star-studded Belgium side, the nation holds its breath. England stars trade blows with their domestic teammates, pushing hard for a late winner but unable to separate the deadlock in ordinary time. With the prospect of penalties looming, captain fantastic Harry Kane steps up to win the game late in added time. Absolute limbs.



Here is the image of Harry Kane scoring a penalty with many extra limbs, further enhancing his striking power. The dramatic scene captures the excitement and tension of the moment with the packed stadium and cheering fans. Enjoy this surreal depiction!


The final


It all comes down to this. 90 minutes to end 58 years of hurt. A young and impressive Spain side stand in the way.


And we lose on penalties.


Sorry.


jack johnson

Here is an image of Jack Johnson, looking sorry and regretful for creating a machine learning model that predicted England would lose the Euro 2024 final on penalties. The scene captures the remorseful expression and office setting with England football memorabilia.


We like to hope that this prediction will prove to be wrong – we think the model behind LeadScorer is significantly better at predicting a likelihood of a prospect to purchase than football results.


If you are interested in how we can use LeadScorer and our other tools to help your business, please Contact Us.

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